Young Joon Oh

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Donbas, NATO, and the emerging battle against Economic decline

Russia’s rising costs have lowered its reservation value and expanded the feasible set of agreements, making settlement more likely. The shift of once non-negotiable issues into the bargaining range illustrates how changing material conditions alter the structure of payoffs and redefine the space of possible agreements.

this Post from Medium on Sep. 2 2025

The Threshold of Decline and Transition: America at the Crossroads

The question is, how will the U.S. respond to the signals from Ferguson’s Law and the Big Cycle? How will it handle the challenges it faces in this downward phase? Will it slide further into decline, or seize the moment to restructure and launch a new phase of order? Will it cede its place to the rival? These are the challenges for the next decade.

this Post from Medium on Aug. 23 2025

Tariffs Don’t Tell the Whole Story. Public Debt and Market Interest Rates Do

While an initial objective might have been to reduce the trade deficit through high tariffs, the cost to American consumers is significant. More importantly, a decline in trust towards the U.S. during tariff negotiations directly impacts the bond market. Ultimately, high tariffs may become little more than a “wrapper.”

this Post from Medium on Jul. 28, 2025

Which one is More Intuitive : Bayesian or Frequentist

Bayesian statistics directly assigns probabilities to parameters. The prior distribution already contains a probability description of the parameter, and the posterior distribution is the revised version of the prior, updated to incorporate the observed data. Unlike frequentist methods, Bayesian interpretation does not demand toggling between data probabilities and parameter probabilities.

this Post from Computational Social Science Post on Feb. 20, 2025

What is Computational Social Science? (Network)

As computational social science continues to mature, network analysis stands as one of its central pillars. It exemplifies the core ideals of CSS: embracing new data sources, deploying computational methods to tackle complexity. Just as Econometrics carved out a niche within the broader discipline of Statistics by focusing on economic applications and specialized regression techniques, Computational Social Science is similarly seeking to differentiate itself from general Data Science.

this Post from Medium on December 16, 2024

Renaissance Network : Web crawler and Data Visualization

I built a web crawler to get network data about figures of Renaissance period. I made a tutorial video for it in my Youtube channel.

this Post from Computational Social Science Post